Vote, Dammit!


The election rolls into its final hours, and if you haven't voted, I beg you to get out from behind your computers and do that. I've been reporting on the election all freakin' day, and I can't wait till its finally over. And just because I had to put together a final analysis, I'm going to subject my InsideGoogle readers to it. Don't worry, after this, its all back to Google.

My way of looking at it is that Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin are going for Bush. Kerry should pull New Mexico, New Hampshire and Minnesota. As for guesstimation, Bush is looking to pull off a surprise win in Hawaii, and Iowa seems to be finally trending Kerry. That leaves the electoral vote at 261 Bush, 214 Kerry. Since Bush only needs 9 to win, and the remaining states of Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and New Jersey (15) all have more than that, he needs a win in any one of those to pull it off. Florida is definetly trending Bush, in my opinion. The latest Zogby poll gives Bush an 8-point lead in the Sunshine State, and that poll includes the 30-40% of Floridians who already voted. This may also indicate a national trend of voters who are unsure going into the election deciding to stick with the incumbent Bush at the last second. Either way, my forecast is Bush takes Florida and goes home.

Things that can change everything: Kerry can win all three or Kerry can win Hawaii (definetly possible) and either Wisconsin or Colorado, plus Philly and Florida, then Bush can have Jersey and Kerry still wins. Of course, Bush can improve his chances by stealing New Mexico or proving the polls wrong in Iowa. But I think the numbers favor Bush, even if it is too close to call.

And that's all the politics you'll see here. Now, back to Google!

- posted by Nathan Weinberg @ 11/02/2004 06:21:00 PM